Donald G. McNeil Jr., a science reporter for The New York Times, joins us with a look at what could be a significant breakthrough in the fight against the spread of HIV. Researchers have announced the results of a six-year, 16,000-person study in Thailand, and it appears that an experimental HIV vaccine has cut the risk of infection by almost one-third when compared to a placebo. This is the first time a vaccine has cut the risk of infection at all.

As Washington works to overhaul our health care, we’re talking to health care leaders across the country about their ideas for change. This week we’ve been looking at models of health care systems at home and abroad. Today, for a reality check on how much reform our society can really tolerate, we are joined by Bernice Pescosolido. She is a distinguished Professor of Sociology at Indiana University and the Director of the Indiana Consortium for Mental Health Services Research.

The news out of South Africa this week indicates there's something for the HIV-stricken country to celebrate. A new report says that HIV infections among young teens are down. In addition, the Western Cape is seeing fewer transmissions because more males are using condoms, and in the last three years the number of HIV infections has stabilized. Is the march of HIV slowing down?

The Takeaway is joined by Dr. Ernest Darkoh, a global health expert known for revolutionizing Botswana's HIV treatment program, to deconstruct the data. Click through for the full transcript of the interview.

Also, check out some intriguing data visualizations of HIV infection rates plotted against life expectancy, from gapminder.org.

HIV is sometimes referred to as a disease of the gut because of the voracity with which it attacks a victim's gastrointestinal tract. As researchers look at ways to limit the disease's affect on the body, a simple, stomach soothing solution came to mind: yogurt. More precisely, yogurt infused with friendly bacteria. Scientist Gregor Reid joins The Takeaway to talk about his work with HIV patients in Africa. There, in Tanzania, he has helped teach a group of "yogurt mamas" how they might serve up disease protection one cup at a time.

For more information, head to the pilot yogurt program's website, Western Heads East. Read more about the group, as well as other probiotic research, by checking out the article, A cultured response to HIV, in the June 2009 issue of the journal Nature Medicine.

Photos from Gregor Reid's trip:

One of the ongoing mysteries of the H1N1 influenza outbreak is why it killed 26 people in Mexico, but only two people right across the border in the U.S. Is it simply that the virus is less virulant now? Or can we learn something by looking at how each nation handles public health crises? The Takeaway talks to Dr. Julio Frenk, former Mexican Minister of Health and now Dean of the Harvard School of Public Health.

Looks like H1N1 virus, still more popularly known as the swine flu, is waning in Mexico. The virus has sickened at least 245 people in the U.S., and killed a young boy. So what lies ahead? Obviously no one (except maybe psychic John Edwards) knows for sure, but some disease trackers are mapping a possible course. How? Well, a computer simulation out of Northwestern University is taking inspiration from an unusual source: the dollar bill. Donald McNeil Jr, Science reporter for our partner, The New York Times, joins The Takeaway with a look at how the virus might spread in the U.S.

For more, read Donald G. McNeil Jr.'s article, Predicting Flu With the Aid of (George) Washington, in today's New York Times.

The spokeswoman for Houston's Department of Health and Human Services, Kathy Barton, told the Houston Chronicle a few details about the child who succumbed to the flu, marking the first death in the United States from the H1N1 virus. It was revealed that the child was from Mexico, had become ill in Brownsville, Texas, and was transported to Houston for treatment. The child died Monday in an unidentified Houston hospital. There have been no reported Houston-area cases of the disease, so far. It's the first death outside of Mexico, where the outbreak first began. And out of the 65 confirmed cases of swine flu in the U.S., most of them are mild. The CDC still has to release more details, but for we go to Dr. Susan Fisher-Hoch. She's a former CDC staffer, an epidemiologist at University of Texas School of Public Health, and co-author of the book, Level 4: Virus Hunters of the CDC.

The first death from swine flu outside of Mexico occurred this morning in the United States when a toddler died from the flu. The flu is spreading across the globe. Germany confirmed three cases of swine flu on Wednesday, becoming the third European country hit by the disease. New Zealand's swine flu total rose to 14 and there are reported cases in Scotland, Spain, France, and Israel. To put this in perspective, we return to epidemiologist Dr. Richard Wenzel, who is Chairman of the Department of Internal Medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University.

The outbreak of swine flu is spreading across the globe, with cases confirmed from Mexico to Israel to New Zealand. Fears of a pandemic have prompted many nations, including ours, to ramp up security at land and air border crossings. As with any crisis involving national security, officials are considering all sorts of new technology to solve the problem. In Malaysia and Thailand, they're using high-tech thermal scanners to scan for swine flu. You pass through one at an airport, and it can determine if you’ve got a fever. So what technology are we using here at home? And is this going to help curb the spread of the flu? To help us answer these questions, The Takeaway is joined by Guy Martin, Senior Correspondent for Security for Conde Nast Traveller.

What to name the flu that is raising alarms across the globe is becoming a complex issue. See, pork producers object to use of the name "swine flu", particularly in light of the fact that the virus has not been conclusively found in pigs and seems to include DNA of the human and avian flu. But calling the bug "Mexican flu" or "North American influenza" irks others, despite falling in with a long medical tradition of naming bugs after the regions where they were first found. Janet Napolitano, the secretary of homeland security, seems determined to call it the "H1N1 virus," which doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. To talk us through the global challenge of naming the flu is Keith Bradsher of the New York Times.

For more, read Keith Bradsher's article, The Naming of Swine Flu, a Curious Matter in the New York Times.

The world has found a new strain of flu, so now what? Enter the virus hunters. This pack of epidemiologists, virologists, and infectious disease experts (sounds like a fun party) are fast on the bug's tail, looking for answers that may help us control its spread. What are they trying to figure out? How long will it take to rustle up some answers? And when you're an epidemiologist chasing down a flu virus, what do you do in your lab all day? The Takeaway is joined by Dr. Susan P. Fisher-Hoch, an epidemiologist at the University of Texas School of Public Health and co-author of the book, Level 4: Virus Hunters of the CDC. ,br/>

Swine flu is continuing it's spread around the globe, and there's one word on everyone's lips: vaccine. Can researchers create a vaccine that will stop the virus with one quick jab of a needle? How quickly can a vaccine be created? And what can we do to prevent the spread of the flu before a vaccine is created? Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explains.

We were lucky enough to be able to nab Dr. Fauci by phone before he heads to Capitol Hill this afternoon, where he will testify at an emergency Senate meeting about the federal government's response to swine flu.

For more from Dr. Fauci, read his commentary on MSNBC.com, Why there is no AIDS vaccine.

The last few days we've been inundated with numbers and swine flu facts. Eighty deaths in Mexico jumped to 100. Twenty sickened school children in Queens became 40. We know that pork's fine to eat, and that we might not want to travel south of border. But what about some of the contextual facts — are people getting sicker more quickly in this outbreak than they have in others? Will border security stations really help? Here to answer the Big Picture questions is Dr. Richard Wenzel, The Takeaway's go-to swine flu epidemiologist.
Miss President Obama's speech regarding swine flu? Watch it here:

As the confirmed numbers of confirmed cases of swine flu continue to rise around the world, countries are responding at their borders, tightening transport and immigration controls. Joining us now to look at how the world is responding at the border is BBC Correspondent Matt McGrath.

Here's the AP's report on how the swine flu is sparking border precautions:

We continue our coverage of the outbreak of swine flu that appears to be spreading rapidly across the globe. While the epicenter of the outbreak is in Mexico, there are 50 confirmed cases of people sickened from swine flu in the U.S., including 28 at one New York City school. Around the world, 6 are confirmed in Canada; 2 are confirmed in Scotland (with 7 suspected); at least 10 are suspected in New Zealand. In Spain, there is one confirmed case and 17 suspected ones; one suspected in France and one suspected in Israel. This may appear to be a fast moving story to us non-scientists, but in the medical community, they are taking things slow. The Takeaway talks to Dr. Michael Edmonds, an epidemiologist at Virginia Commonwealth University to find out why.

Also joining the conversation is Tom Skinner, the spokesperson for the Center for Disease Control and Prevention to give us the latest on the outbreak in the United States. We also will get a report from Ioan Grillo, Mexico correspondent for Time Magazine. He joins us from the heart of the outbreak in Mexico City.
RESOURCES
Map: State-by-state swine flu infections (The Takeaway)
Read and listen to more about swine flu (The Takeaway)
Times Topics: Swine Flu (The New York Times)
Q&A: Swine Influenza and You (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
Understanding Swine Flu (The New York Times)
Key Facts (CDC)
Swine Flu (CDC)
Swine Flu Alert Map (HealthMap.org)
Consults Blog (The New York Times)
Follow CDCemergency on Twitter

UPDATED: April 30, 2009, 8:50 a.m. (Eastern)

- 91 confirmed cases of "swine influenza A" (H1N1) in United States, including one death (CDC, April 29, 2009, 9:45 p.m. ET)
- Cases confirmed in 11 states: Arizona (1), California (14), Indiana (1), Kansas (2), Massachusetts (2), Michigan (2), Nevada (1), New York (51), Ohio (1), Texas (16) (Source: CDC, April 29, 2009, 9:45 p.m. ET)
- Some U.S. schools are closing in ten states, and the government is asking employers to prepare contingency plans for workers, in case they need to telecommute. (April 29)
- President Obama: "We are continuing to closely monitor the emergency cases of the H1N1 flu virus throughout the United States. As I said this morning, this is obviously a very serious situation," (prime-time press conference, April 29)
- WHO Director-General raised the level of influenza pandemic alert to Phase Five (Source: WHO)
- It's not an "epidemic" even in Mexico
President Felipe Calderon is advising Mexicans to remain indoors between May 1 and May 5. There are 2,500 suspected cases of swine flu in Mexico and more than 160 suspected deaths. - The Department of Health and Human Services issued a nationwide public health emergency declaration, allowing HHS to "take additional steps to fully mobilize our prevention, treatment and mitigation capabilities should those actions become necessary." (Source: HHS, April 26)

What is Swine Influenza
Swine flu is a respiratory disease normally found in pigs caused by type A influenza virus. Swine flu viruses do not normally infect humans. However, sporadic human infections with swine flu have occurred. In the past, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) received reports of approximately one human swine flu infection every one to two years in the U.S., but from December 2005 through February 2009, 12 cases of human infection with swine influenza have been reported.

What are the symptoms of swine flu in humans?
The symptoms of swine flu in humans are generally similar to the symptoms of the normal human seasonal flu. Symptoms generally include fever, extreme tiredness, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also have reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea. However, without a specific lab test, it is impossible to know whether you may be suffering from swine flu or another flu strain.

Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?
No. Swine flu is not transmitted by food. You can not get swine influenza from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork and pork products is safe. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160°F kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

How does swine flu spread?
Influenza viruses can be directly transmitted from pigs to people and from people to pigs. Human infection with swine flu usually occurs when people are in close proximity to infected pigs. Human-to-human transmission of swine flu occurs in much the same way as seasonal flu spreads, namely, through coughing or sneezing of people infected with the virus. People may become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.

If infected, a person may be able to infect another person one day before symptoms develop and up to seven or more days after becoming sick. Thus, a person is able to pass the flu on before they know they are sick. Those with swine flu should be considered potentially contagious as long as they are demonstrating symptoms and up to seven days longer from the onset of their illness. Children might be contagious for longer periods of time.

What medications are available to treat swine flu infections in humans?
At this time, CDC recommends the use of oseltamivir (Tamiflu) or zanamivir (Relenza) for the treatment and/or prevention of infection of swine flu. These drugs work best if started within two day of getting sick.

Will a flu shot protect me?
Not necessarily. The swine flu viruses are very different from human viruses. Thus, it is generally understood that vaccines for human seasonal flu will not provide protection from the swine flu.

For more information:
• Center for Disease Control and Prevention
• World Health Organization

A few key terms
• Endemic: The usual existence of a disease in certain areas. For example, experts fear that bird flu may become endemic in Turkey’s poultry population.
• Epidemic: Unusual occurrence of a disease that affects a large number of individuals within a population or region at the same time, or the occurrence of a disease in larger number of individuals than usual.
• Pandemic: An epidemic occurring over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting large numbers of people. A global epidemic.

In the wake of an outbreak in swine flu in Mexico that has been spreading, a health official for the European Union urged Europeans to avoid non-essential travel to the United States and Mexico. And here in the United States many of our listeners are concerned about travel to Mexico. Rudy Maxa is the Host and Executive Producer of the PBS travel series Rudy Maxa's World. He joins us now with answers to your travel questions.

We are continuing our coverage of the swine flu outbreak. The flu started in Mexico, which is reporting over 1600 people believed to have contracted the virus resulting in 103 deaths. The flu has since spread across the United States from New York to California and there are now confirmed cases in Canada and Spain. Across the globe public health officials are swinging into action, spreading the word of hand washing, warning against large public gatherings, stockpiling Tamiflu treatments, and engaging the public. But countries like Hong Kong, who learned their lessons from the SARS scare, are already completely prepared for the possibility of an outbreak and have all their health care infrastructure in place. Keith Bradsher, Hong Kong bureau chief for the New York Times, joins us with a few ideas we can learn from Hong Kong and a look at the global response.

Also joining the discussion is Laurie Garrett, Pulitzer Prize-winning science journalist and writer of two bestselling books, including The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance. Ms. Garrett is now the senior fellow for global health Council on Foreign Relations and is well poised to understand this crisis.

We are closely tracking the swine flu outbreak in Mexico that is rapidly spreading across the globe. There are confirmed cases in the United States and Canada and now Spain's health ministry has confirmed that nation's first case. World health officials are bracing for a potential worldwide pandemic of the swine flu that is being linked to the deaths of more than one hundred people in Mexico. More than 1600 people are believed to have caught the virus. The Takeaway is joined by Dr. Richard Wenzel, immediate past President of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. Dr. Wenzel is currently Chairman of the Department of Internal Medicine at Virginia Commonwealth University. He can help us understand the symptoms, the causes, and the best ways to prevent transmission of this flu.

Also on The Takeaway is Ros Atkins, presenter of the BBC's World Have Your Say. He is in Mexico and joins us with a look at how Mexico is handling the outbreak.