Unemployment numbers are out: payrolls dropped by just 247,000 and the jobless rate falls to 9.4 percent. That just might be good news. Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, joins us with his take on the numbers and what they mean for economic recovery.
Unemployment numbers are due out this morning and economic analyst Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, joins us with his predictions. In April, Lakshman predicted that we’d be coming out of the recession this summer. We wanted to road test some of your ideas, so The Takeaway's Femi Oke went looking in unusual places for indications on how the economy is doing. First stop: the ASPCA in New York City, where the rates of pet adoptions tend to follow people's economic well-being. Could the dogs here give us a peek at which direction the economy is going?
Next stop: Wall Street, but not to visit the banks. Instead, Femi spoke with cobbler Minas Polychronakis, who for over 30 years has been repairing shoes for rich and poor alike.
Detroit has been hard hit in this recession. As we continue to look at economic indicators, Charlie LeDuff, reporter with the Detroit News, and Dr. Carl Schmidt, the Wayne County medical examiner, join us to tell of a sad side effect of the weak economy: families unable to afford funerals.
"People are ashamed to come to the office and tell us they can't afford to arrange a funeral.... And if someone tells us to please wait while they get their affairs in order, then we have to respect their wishes."
—Dr. Carl Schmidt, Wayne County Medical Examiner, about bodies piling up in the city morgue
While working fathers are content with their job-life balance, moms are increasingly angry as they try to balance being great employees and great parents. Who are they mad at? The dads. Joining The Takeaway to discuss the continuing inequality of parenting are Lisa Belkin, author of the Motherlode blog for The New York Times, and Jeremy Adam Smith, author of The Daddy Shift: How Stay-at-Home Dads, Breadwinning Moms, and Shared ParentingAreTransforming the American Family.
Division of labor is very important. But a lot of studies ...have found that just as important is expressing gratitude for what your partner does and cultivating an attitude of gratitude in your home and when you do that couples tend to be a lot happier, individuals are happier, and the relationships tend to last longer and also, I think, it's good for the kids.
—Author Jeremy Adam Smith on maintaining a happy marriage
Economists offer an academic view of the economy—they know the numbers, the rates, and the interest. But if you want to know the reality behind those numbers and find out what's happening on the ground, there's only one view: the trucker's view. Cliff Hagedon owns Fort Gratiot Express trucking; he carries freight across the nation. The more people buy, the busier he is. He joins The Takeaway from the road on his way to Texarkana.
"I don't believe that we're completely out of the recession, but we are making a huge turn."
—Truck driver Cliff Hagedon on the end of the recession
The car industry is starting to release its second quarter profit reports. The Ford Motor Company is posting a surprise $2.8 billion profit, but it continues to have operating losses. Since its two biggest competitors, GM and Chrysler, have just emerged from bankruptcy, the report is definitely creating a mixed picture of the company's health. Globally, Hyundai has managed to post a huge profit, while luxury car brand Porsche has big changes in the works. For more we turn to Nick Bunkley, The New York Times auto industry reporter, and Russell Padmore, a BBC business correspondent.
This morning, JP Morgan Chase posted a quarterly profit of $2.7 billion. That's a 36 percent jump from a year ago. It comes just two days after Goldman Sachs announced a quarterly profit of over $3 billion. As the two banks weather a harsh economic climate, they have managed to pay back the huge government loans they took last year and proceed to earn record profits. Joining us to discuss Chase's earnings is Eric Dash, banking reporter for The New York Times.
Reports are trickling out that say the economy is on a slow upswing. But is it really? The Takeaway talks to two small business owners. Jack Bernstein, who owns a corporate catering business and retail sandwich shop owner in Miami, says that business is down. Ed Snively, a real estate broker in El Centro, California, says that business is way up from last year.
Yesterday, Goldman Sachs made headlines with their record quarterly earnings, taking in $3.44 billion in just four months. That may be a sign of a strenthening economy. And yet unemployment has continued rising: nationally 9.5 percent, the highest rate in 26 years. Which of those two numbers tells us where the economy is headed, and which just tells us where its been? Here to help us figure that out is Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a company that forecasts recessions and recoveries.
"By April it was clear the recession would be over this summer. I don't think the man on the street will feel that until the fall when they're looking in the rear view mirror. Because really your gut feel is the rear view mirror feel."
—Lakshman Achuthan on lagging economic indicators
"Having more of that money in the U.S. available for businesses to invest and to be loaned back out reduces our dependence on other sources of that income, particularly foreign sources of that borrowing that's also been part of the boom."
— Kelly Evans on the importance of spending
Economic indicators show that the economy will see an upturn in the coming months. But Justin Fox, Editor-at-Large for TIME magazine, isn't too excited about the numbers. He joins The Takeaway to explain why. He is the author of the recently published The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street.
For more, read Justin Fox's article, A Fun-Free Recovery, in TIME Magazine.
"I don't see anything but a rise in the tax burden. We've made a lot of commitments and at some point we have to pay for them. We've basically been able to borrow our way out of them for a while."
— Justin Fox of Time Magazine on the alleged end of the recession