Are Markets the Best Economic Indicators?

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Yesterday, Goldman Sachs made headlines with their record quarterly earnings, taking in $3.44 billion in just four months. That may be a sign of a strenthening economy. And yet unemployment has continued rising: nationally 9.5 percent, the highest rate in 26 years. Which of those two numbers tells us where the economy is headed, and which just tells us where its been? Here to help us figure that out is Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a company that forecasts recessions and recoveries.

"By April it was clear the recession would be over this summer. I don't think the man on the street will feel that until the fall when they're looking in the rear view mirror. Because really your gut feel is the rear view mirror feel."
—Lakshman Achuthan on lagging economic indicators


Lakshman Achuthan

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Farai Chideya

Comments [1]


That is about the stupidest comment on the economy I've read, and I read a lot. Goldman effectively road the latest bubble, the one where the government larded banks with cash. Goldman may have outsmarted their competitors in latching on to that cash. But unemployment and underemployment continue to skyrocket. The middle class remains in shock at the dwindling of their assets. These are the only fundamentals that really matter.

Jul. 15 2009 12:50 PM

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