How America's Changing Demographics Will Affect the 2016 Vote

Friday, November 09, 2012

On election night, November 6, before the results came down, Fox News Host Bill O’Reilly told his fellow pundits that "20 years ago, President Obama would've been roundly defeated by an establishment candidate like Mitt Romney." What's changed, O'Reilly explained, is that "the white establishment is now the minority."

White Americans may not be the minority quite yet, but the demographics are shifting in that direction, and those shifts will certainly affect the electorate. As demographer William Frey, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, writes: "Minorities accounted for a historic high (28 percent) of voters in Tuesday’s elections." President Obama won 80 percent of the minority vote, and 39 percent of the white vote.

The growing Latino population may transform once-Republican bastions into swing states, Dr. Frey explains. "More fast-growing states in the South and Mountain West still lie in the province of Republicans (think Texas, Georgia, and Arizona), but their changing demography, coupled with greater Democratic appeal to whites, will gradually change this."


William Frey

Produced by:

Jillian Weinberger

Comments [8]

dan villemaire from colorado

What the republicans refuse to admit is that they are a racist group only in a red state like Georgia could high school proms be black or white. Where even kids that are mixed race were not allowed to attend the white proms. The thing is that 99% of the republican party makes the rest of them look bad. LOL

Apr. 05 2013 01:35 PM
unkerjay from Puget Sound, WA

One other thought on this.

If immigration reform is passed early and significantly
bi-partisan, how much will that change the equation of
the mid-term, the next election?

That and perhaps a sea change in the attitudes and strategy
of the republican party.

Four years is an eternity in politics.

Could it make a difference? a significant difference? Passing it?
Taking it off the table as an issue?

Nov. 13 2012 07:56 PM
unkerjay from Puget Sound, WA

Curious. Looking at the electoral map breakdown of republican vs democratic victories and considering the shifting demographics that made a difference this time around and perhaps going into the future as the country's demographics shift from a white majority, does this make, perhaps, a stronger case for proportional representation.

Proportional representation being not majority wins, but, if you have a threshold percentage of the vote, you get a percentage of the representation.

Seems to me that would benefit republicans in democratic strongholds and democrats in republican strongholds.

Or is that just wishful thinking not likely to happen anymore than republicans and democrats are likely to open up the electoral process to include the voices of other candidates in the debates or on the ballots?

Nov. 11 2012 11:06 AM

Hey, did you ever stop to think about how third-world immigration and forced integration is required of EVERY White country and ONLY White countries? Did you know that according to the United Nations this is GENOCIDE? Lots of people who say they are anti-racist are really just anti-White. Anti-racist is a code word for anti-White.

Nov. 10 2012 10:31 PM
unkerjay from Puget Sound, WA

I might add, more importantly what gets a candidate to 270 electoral votes, the deciding number that determines victory or loss.

Nov. 09 2012 10:59 PM
unkerjay from Puget Sound, WA

Will the next election be decided on demographic or political lines?

Was Obama's re-election largely a function of his ethnicity or his politics?

Suppose, next election we have again, two white men running for the highest office,
or a man and a woman?

Suppose that woman is Hilary Clinton. Suppose that woman is Condoleeza Rice,
or Susana Martinez, or Nikki Haley, or Elizabeth Warren, or Tammy Baldwin,
crossing not only ethnic, but gender or sexual orientation lines as well.

What curves would that throw into the calculations for what constituencies may or
may not matter in the next election?

Certainly Nikki Haley or Susana Martinez would not necessarily draw the same
demographics as would Elizabeth Warren or Tammy Baldwin in comparison.

Suppose Marco Rubio is the republican nominee next time around?

It wasn't enough to be black if you were Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, Alan Keyes,
Shirley Chisholm, or Carol Moseley Braun - also rans.

There may be larger lessons to be learned from this election than just the demographics.

It may not be enough to not be white. It may not be enough to appeal to non-whites.

Bottom line, message may still matter more than demographics.

That should not, but, probably will be discounted between now and 2016 allowing those who disproportionately consider the impact and importance of demographics to overshadow the influence of message to be once again surprized at the outcome of the next election.

It won't matter if you appeal to a broader audience with an unappealing message anymore than if one appeals to a targeted insufficient audience with an appealing message. The challenge is to get to at least 50.1 percent. That takes, I would think, both a broad audience and an appealing message.

I think they both contributed to Obama's victory.

Could he have won with one, but not the other?

Perhaps not.

Nov. 09 2012 10:54 PM
TonyInNYC from The Bronx

It seems like if you're a minority, there was an 80% chance you'd find the Republican platform unattractive.

Nov. 09 2012 02:25 PM

The disturbing Democratic Party's obsession with race from segregation to today and how to cynically use it for political advantage and control continues and that is nothing to be proud of as we all look at a new debt ceiling of 18 trillion dollars that will punish all of us.
No doubt the Democratic Party was proud of their race based lock on the Solid South for a century but at what horrible cost to the nation? What will the cost be this time? Do they care as long as they have the power?

PS - Texas just elected staunch Tea Party conservative and hispanic Ted Cruz to the US Senate but that doesn't help the media narrative does it?

Nov. 09 2012 10:54 AM

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