How to Predict the Golden Globes Awards

Friday, January 14, 2011 - 06:14 AM

Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale in 'The Fighter' Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale in 'The Fighter' (Paramount Pictures)

When it comes to the Golden Globes, there are certain bets you can place that you're more or less guaranteed to win.

For example, want to bet that at least one person will stumble onto the stage with a drink in hand? Sure, especially if there's money on it. Want to wager that the camera will pan over to Jennifer Aniston whenever Brad Pitt is on stage? Well, that's a gimme.

But what about wagers that are less obvious — about winners and losers and predictors for the Oscars? I have some tips that might help you out.

1) Keep your eyes on the unknown supporting actress nominee.

The Globes love an unknown actress, especially in the supporting actress category. In recent years, they gave statues to Monique for “Precious,” Sally Hawkins for “Happy-Go-Lucky,” Marion Cotillard for “La Vie en Rose,” and Jennifer Hudson for “Dream Girls.” If the trend continues this year, we can expect either Jacki Weaver from “Animal Kingdom” or Melissa Leo from “The Fighter” to win; and I’m putting my money on Leo.

2) When it comes to best picture drama, look overseas.

Being the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the Globes voters like international stories. In fact, all four of the most recent best picture dramas took place primarily outside the United States. “Slumdog Millionaire” was in India. “Atonement” was in England. “Babel” was mostly in the Middle East and Japan. (And “Avatar” took place on Pandora.) This year, the only best picture drama nominee with a story outside the U.S. is “The King’s Speech.” So I’d bet on that winning.

3) Don’t use the Globes to predict the Oscars.

The Golden Globes are frequently touted as a good predictor of which movies will win the Oscars. However, the Golden Globes have only correctly predicted four out of the past 10 best picture winners. If you want to win your office Oscar pool, look to the Critics Choice Awards instead, which have correctly predicted eight out of the past 10 best picture winners.

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