Who Will - and Who Should - Win Oscars

Friday, February 25, 2011 - 11:49 AM

Matt Damon, True Grit Matt Damon in "True Grit" (Paramount Pictures)

It’s hard to believe that Oscars day – my favorite day of the year – is only 48 hours away.

All year, I’ve been gearing up for the big day, watching everything from awful foreign language flicks (the worst: "Biutiful") to amazingly touching animated shorts (my favorite: "The Lost Thing").

Below are my predictions for who I think will win and who I want to win for a dozen randomly selected categories. Check back in late Sunday night/early Monday morning to get the final (and full) list of winners and be sure to follow my live Tweeting on Oscar night.

And don't forget, to make your own picks before Sunday!

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Nominees: "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids are All Right," "The King's Speech," "The Social Network," "127 Hours," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit," "Winter's Bone."

  • Prediction: "The King’s Speech" – a film that’s scientifically designed to win statues.
  • Preference: "True Grit" – there’s absolutely no chance this will win, but it was quietly mesmerizing.

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Annette Bening ("The Kids are All Right"), Nicole Kidman ("Rabbit Hole"), Jennifer Lawrence ("Winter's Bone"), Natalie Portman ("Black Swan"), Michelle Williams ("Blue Valentine")

  • Prediction: Natalie Portman – why? I have no idea, but everyone’s saying she’ll win.
  • Preference: Annette Bening – a nuanced, complex performance that spoke volumes, even when she wasn’t speaking.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Javier Bardem ("Biutiful"), Jesse Eisenberg ("The Social Network"), Colin Firth ("The King's Speech"), James Franco ("127 Hours"), Jeff Bridges ("True Grit")

  • Prediction: Colin Firth – a character ripe with contradictions, both powerful and trapped, and always believable.
  • Preference: Colin Firth – see above.

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Christian Bale ("The Fighter"), John Hawkes ("Winter's Bone"), Jeremy Renner ("The Town"), Mark Ruffalo ("The Kids are All Right"), Geoffrey Rush ("The King's Speech")

  • Prediction: Christian Bale – critics and audiences seem to find his performance gripping ... though I think it was over the top.
  • Preference: Geoffrey Rush – half of "The King’s Speech" dream team, the movie would have fell flat without him.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Amy Adams ("The Fighter"), Helena Bonham Carter ("The King's Speech"), Melissa Leo ("The Fighter"), Hailee Steinfeld ("True Grit"), Jacki Weaver ("Animal Kingdom")

  • Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld – Melissa Leo was favored, but her self-funded Oscar campaign has offended many, opening the door for Hailee Steinfeld.
  • Preference: Hailee Steinfeld – she’s actually a lead, not a supporting actor, but regardless, she deserves it.

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Nominees: "How to Train Your Dragon," "The Illusionist," "Toy Story 3."

  • Prediction: "Toy Story 3" – speaks to the tragedy and joys not just of growing up, but to the questions of where one’s value comes from.
  • Preference: "Toy Story 3" – an animated tear-jerker ... yes.

Best Short Film (Animated)

Nominees: "Day & Night," "The Gruffalo," "Let's Pollute Geefwee Boedoe," "The Lost Thing," "Madagascar."

  • Prediction: "Night & Day" – it’s hard to beat the Pixar Oscar machine
  • Preference: "The Lost Thing" – beautiful animation and an incredibly touching story about a living, breathing misfit toy.

Best Documentary Feature

Nominees: "Exit through the Gift Shop," "Gasland," "Inside Job," "Restrepo," "Waste Land."

  • Prediction: "Exit through the Gift Shop" – it’s the Oscar sweetheart, and Banksy is on everyone’s radars
  • Preference: "Exit through the Gift Shop" – a cleverly structured film, it makes fun of itself and of art (and on a somewhat irritating note, of its own audience). Also, it’s the only nominee I sat all the way through.

Achievement in Makeup

Nominees: "Barney's Version," "The Way Back," "The Wolfman"

  • Prediction: The Wolfman – Rafer Guzman, of Newsday, told me this will win, and he’s smart, so I’m betting on it.
  • Preference: The Wolfman – I don’t actually have a preference here. I haven’t seen any of the films. But let’s say "Wolfman" to be agreeable.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

Nominees: "How to Train Your Dragon," "Inception," "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "The Social Network."

  • Prediction: "The Social Network" – everyone’s loving Trent Reznor these days.
  • Preference: "The Social Network" – everyone includes me.

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

Nominees: "Coming Home" from "Country Strong," "I See the Light" from "Tangled," "If I Rise" from "127 Hours," "We Belong Together" from "Toy Story 3."

  • Prediction: "Toy Story 3" – Disney is an unstoppable, unrelenting Oscar music machine.
  • Preference: "Toy Story 3" – why not?

Achievement in Sound Mixing

Nominees: "Inception," "The King's Speech," "Salt," "The Social Network," "True Grit."

  • Prediction: "Inception" – apparently, the Academy just chooses the movie with biggest special effects for this category.
  • Preference: "Salt" – just because I think it would be awesome if Salt won an Oscar.

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