It's 56 days until election day, and the latest CNN-ORC poll (pdf) gives president Obama a 6-point lead over Mitt Romney. While having a post-convention bounce is surely comforting to the Obama campaign, will recent changes in the polls affect Obama's standing in swing states like Florida, Ohio, and Virginia?
According to David Weigel, a political reporter for Slate, “It takes a while for these numbers to bounce and be reflected at the lower levels. The national sample seems to reflect something immediate happening before anything else does.” Weigel also mentioned a Civitas poll of North Carolina, a conservative organization in the state. The poll suggested that Romney was winning the state, and that he had a 30 percent lead over President Obama among black voters.
Weigel also said that the fundamentals have not changed much despite President Obama’s speech at the Democratic Convention receiving mixed reviews. Although the president gives versions of this speech across the country, he had not yet had a sustained chance to repeat this message. President Obama has maintained a slight and seemingly impenetrable lead for months.
In some polls, however, Romney is doing fairly well. But traditionally, when Republicans have won the national election, like in the case of George W. Bush, they held a substantial lead over Democrats as to whom voters believed could better handle healthcare and tax reform policy. Yet despite there being a sluggish economy, people are not trusting Romney and Ryan with the rest of what they typically expect from government.