Let's break this down a bit: Russia's economy is based on energy, and selling weapons, and still uses the Security Council to remind everyone they exist. China has few resources and relies heavily on cheap labor and foreign ideas. India is in a cold war with Pakistan and exports all their brainiacs. And Brazil has favelas. Democracy restrained, corruption flourishes in all four and this is what's going to rule the world? Seriously?

Remember "knowledge is power"? The US still has ideas coming out of its wazoo. Those so-called future leaders hold themselves back through oligarchies, single-party tactics, caste systems, and sheer poverty. Fusion energy and artificial intelligence will crush the BRIC.

I guess writing books about visions of a dystopian American future sells more than that of an American-led renaissance for the next century.

While I've not always agreed with Ferguson's traditionalism and determinism, I do appreciate his willingness to articulate his perspective as a public intellectual, which was regularly on display at The New School, for instance.

One of the most fascinating bits he alluded to in his "killer apps" discussion is the fact that there has been a "convergence" of societies in terms of processes and technology that have been standardized to best direct global flows, particularly for economic purposes. (Although Guillen and others have rightly found that concurrent with convergence is a diversity of development and cultural patterns, much like John said.)

What the U.S. and the "rest of the West" often overlook is that they -- through the historical moments of Bretton Woods, the institutionalization of the WB and IMF, and the Washington Consensus -- promoted globalization and created the terms of the predominant Neoliberal model (which is likely changing), essentially providing the rest of the world the "killer apps" that Ferguson writes about.

I welcome Mr. Niall Ferguson's scholarly insights. But, typically, like so many scholars, he takes for granted and ignores the foundation of all prior civilizations, especially our contemporary global civilization, and that is how energy is harnessed to enable the "killer apps". (Just as a major cause of the decline and collapse of the wood dependent Roman Empire was the deforestation of Europe is generally ignored by historians.) That could be included as part of the "scientific revolution", perhaps, but what is crucial is that the BRIC nations, especially China, and other parts of the world--notably Nigeria--are experiencing economic surges not just due to the "killer apps", but to oil and coal which spurred Western development--coal for the last 400 years, and oil for the last 150--and, in a world where we're finding only 1 barrel of oil for every 4 to 6 that we use, the inevitable decline in this vital resource will undermine the civilizational development of China and other nations that have come late to the oil party. While I do not dismiss Mr. Ferguson's "killer apps" explanatory ideas, energy--as both a life principle, and a principle of civilization--is prior to "killer apps".By the way, the Takeaway, like the rest of the American media, is ignoring the biggest news story of the 21st century, which is how this country will (and has already begun to) unravel as a consequence of global oil depletion.

...and the name Obama is not mentioned once as the discussion centers on the decline of the US and the lack of leadership provided by the leader of the free world. Isn't the best way to dismantle a great nation is to deliberately run up a massive and crippling debt while deliberately pitting citizens against one another for petty political reasons?

"Fascinating".